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The Specific Targeted Research Project CAPRI-DynaSpat tries to address all the objectives mentioned under Task 12 “Ex-ante policy assessment of CAP”, relating to the topic “1. Sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources” and specifically to “1.1 Modernisation and sustainability of agriculture and forestry, including their multifunctional role in order to ensure the sustainable development and promotion of rural areas”. In the following paragraph, we will directly relate the expected achievements of the project to the text of the call for tender.
1. “Research is to develop tools and methodologies in order to evaluate ex-ante intervention measures covering all EU Member States (baseline description, forecasting, monitoring and evaluation of projects, measures, programmes, and policies), including those related to the improvement of agricultural structure.”
As explained above, baseline description and forecasting will be addressed by a yearly reference run. The CAPRI modelling system features a detailed description of CAP policy measures including the premium scheme, set-aside obligations and quotas on the supply side, and price floors, market interventions, tariffs including tariff rate quotas and bilateral trade agreements as well as export subsidies. The French partner in the ongoing CAP-STRAT framework project is currently analysing agri-environmental programs. This analysis may reveal sets of input/output relations for agricultural activities which might be usable in the module for alternative technologies. The activity based concept of the modelling system, distinguishing 5-6 aggregate farm type models per NUTS II region, covers consistently the whole of the EU and allows to incorporate the relevant projects, measures, programmes and policies.
Limiting resources have so far prevented to develop a dynamic version of the CAPRI modelling system. The current system is comparative-static and does not yield a base line, strictly speaking, but a base point only. However, most changes in the CAP are based on a stepwise adjustment process from current to revised instruments. Commission services are interested if the proposed path of policy change provokes intermediate imbalances, e.g. in the FEOGA budget or in agricultural markets. To comply with these information requirements CAPRI has to be reorganised into a dynamic model. Furthermore this will also facilitate comparisons to the results from other modelling systems such as FAPRI or OECD’s AgLink– the latter is used by DG-AGRI for base line development and impact assessment.
2. “Research will identify, at the regional level, the effects of EU policies, and in particular the CAP, on income, employment, production structure, production intensity, and land use.”
The modelling system describes at farm types inside NUTS II regions the agricultural production program bases on about 50 output and inputs which cover consistently the economic activities captured by the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. The outputs are related to production activities (cropping a ha of wheat or fattening a pig), and can be broken down into technologies (conventional, integrated, biological as an example) which allows to assess production intensity. Each model thus defines the production program for a group of farms, which are aggregated consistently to NUTS II regions, from there to Member States and to the EU. Based on an allocation of outputs and inputs to production activities (fertiliser use, pesticide and energy costs, feed costs, costs of remonte etc.), the income per activity and regions are defined. Prices for agricultural outputs are endogenous in the model thanks to the link to the CAPRI market module. An own module will be developed to allow a forecast of employment at regional level as a function of time – depending on the age structure of the farmers – and the economic performance of the agricultural sector compared to the rest of the economy.
3. “A second objective would be to integrate tools for environment and landscape assessment or, where appropriate, elaborate the interface between such tools”.
The CAPRI modelling system was from the beginning designed as an instrument to check for cross-compliance between “classical” goals of agricultural policy and environmental side-effects. The system features a list of pressure indicators, currently N,P,K balances, emission of greenhouse gases from Agriculture, water balances and a rather simple indicator forCO2 output linked to agricultural activities (energy use, use of mineral fertiliser). The latter will be improved by an energy use module building upon detailed process related technical parameters. Further on, the project proposes to improve the remaining indicators by using the link to a Geographical Information System developed by the Joint Research Centre in Ispra. That link will provide an interface between the CAPRI results at NUTS II level and climatic, soil and land use map at a higher spatial resolution. The project will improve the interface between agricultural activity data at NUTS II level in two respects: firstly, by an enhanced mapping algorithm between the more detailed agricultural activity data at NUTS II level from the CAPRI regionalised database and land cover grid units (WP 8), covering from the beginning completely the EU 15. And secondly and even more important, by linking not only ex-post data to the GIS, but exante results as well.
Next, a landscape assessment indicator will be developed (WP 9), and lastly, process models linked to system describing the output of greenhouse gases as a function of climate, soil type and agricultural production program. The GIS link is a necessary pre-requisite to allow improvement of the environmental indicators as well as to link the economic core model to the landscape assessment indicator. The higher spatial resolution of the GIS compared to the current solution related to administrative NUTS II units allows to check the effects of changes in the CAP e.g. on vulnerable zones as defined in the nitrate directive. Looking beyond the current project, it should be mentioned that many research groups applying process models as EPIC, CropSyst or SWAT built upon the same basic data set (Euopean soil map, CORINE land cover, Eurostat land use statistics at NUTS II level). All these group may hence expand their analysis to ex-ante monitoring and scenario impact assessment activities as well based on the results of the CAPRI modelling system. Commission services recently recommended the CAPRI system as source for the monitoring services regarding GHG emission and the CAFE program.
4. “Research should, as much as possible, make use of existing modelling work.”
As indicated above and shown in more detail in the work package description, the project will built solely on already existing quantitative tools, and improve these in the light of the tasks set up in the call for tender.
Last updated: Thursday, September 04, 2014
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