You are here: ILREconomic and Agricultural PolicyResearch CAPRI-Dynaspat project (2004-2007)

CAPRI-Dynaspat Project:
Task 1: RegDIRar updates, reference run, scenario writing and impact analysis

Rational policy design needs impact assessment, especially in complex and highly interlinked areas as the CAP. Policy impacts emanating from CAP measures range from global agricutural markets to regional impacts on income, employment and environment. Commission services have responded to the ever increasing complexity both in terms of measures as well as in terms of targets of the CAP with increased reliance on quantitative modelling. The impact assessment of the Mid-Term Review Projects by internal and external studies constitutes a recent example. One of the four external studies was based on the CAPRI (Common Agricutural Regional Impact) modelling system which is the starting point of the current project Project CAPRI-DynaSpat. Commission services recently recommend CAPRI as the tool to deliver an agricutural baseline for greenhouse gas emission projection. Furthermore, CAPRI was proposed as the instrument to develop a base line for the CAFE (Clean Air For Europe) Program.

The first and main contribution of the project will be support to CAP monitoring and design. For that purpose, the CAPRI modelling system will be kept continuously operational and improved further on regarding its ability to cope with the challenges of policy impact assessment. First of all, an operational system needs reliable up-to-date data. The CAPRI modelling team therefore proposes to update both the national and regional database of CAPRI in regDIRar yearly intervals. The CAPRI data-base consists of two major components. The first is the so-called CoCo (Complete & Consistent) database which combines times series on areas, herd sizes, production, yields, market balances, price and the Economic Accounts for Agricuture at national level for all current EU Member States. System estimations under consistency constraints ensure that gaps in the underlying raw data from Eurostat are closed and inconsistencies are removed. The second component is the regionalised CAPRI database which consistently adds the farm type, regional and activity related dimension to CoCo. The project will keep both parts of the CAPRI database alive and up-to-date (WP 1).

The second contribution will be to develop on a yearly basis a reference run with a ten year horizon, following the updates of the database (WP 2). As the modelling system includes a spatial model for agricutural world markets, the reference run covers at the one hand developments of supply, demand and prices for countries and country blocks at global level. For these global developments the analysis will incorporate resDIRts of other modelling teams and institutions, such as OECDs AgLink baseline, the FAPRI baseline, EUs market outlooks or the FAO long-term projections. On the other hand, the reference runs will reveal the most probable development of the agricutural production program for farm types at NUTS II level under continuation of the current policy. Major resDIRts cover, besides production related data (cropping pattern, herd sizes, production, input use), agricutural income at regional level as well as a basket of environmental indicators.

Thirdly, the Project includes regDIRar scenario writing and impact assessment. Scenario writing will be based on the one hand on an analysis of the ongoing policy debate. Data sources are the EU commissions WEB server, press releases, journals etc.. Possible Projects of commission services, single Member States or other bodies will be incorporated into policy packages to be analysed in scenarios. Commission services (DG-AGRI, DG-ENV) will be invited to define up to two scenarios per year, and will be briefed regarding the resDIRts by workshops, a yearly report and fDIRl access to all resDIRts. Scenarios thus defined by commission services may fall in a restricted domain where any dissemination activities are steered solely by commission services. However, the team will reserve the right to develop and disseminate its own counterfactual policy Projects.

The application of the integrated and improved modelling system is hence expected to improve the knowledge about the development of the agricutural sector in the European Union in the next decade. The modelling system offers a unique chance to combine a regionalised representation of agricutural supply with developments on international commodity markets allowing a comprehensive and realistic impact analysis of the relevant policy measures. For the agricutural sector, expected production, input use and income at regional level for different production branches will be projected. On the policy side, not only the effect on production and income can be analysed, but the related budget outlays as well as effects on consumer welfare. Last but not least, operational indicators allow to assess the scenario impacts on environmentally relevant emissions from agricutural production.

Last Updated:Thursday, September 04, 2014