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Methodologies for quantitative policy impact assessment

Overview:

That research line develops methodologies for quantitative assessments of policies, and is often interwined with projects related to the development of tools for impact assessment, such as the CAPRI modelling system, and their aplication to policy analysis.

One focus is on the econometric estimation of optimization models. Optimization models with an explicit technology representation, partly by constraints, have distinct advantages in policy analysis, not at least as bio-physical relations and related policy instruments are more easily depicted. Our research combines econometric analysis of supply with explicit optimization under constraint; the somewhat unfortunate term "Positive Mathematical Programming" is established for that field of research.

Another focus is on design of large-scale modelling system, with topics such as model linkage, scale changes and meta-modelling, but also work on software solutions which support economic modelling such as Graphical User Interfaces. Additionally, our teams has contributed to the methodological development of econometric estimators.

Research projects

Selected publications

Journal articles

Britz, W., Pèrez Dominguez, I., Narayanan, G. B. (2015): Analyzing Results from Agricultural Large-scale Economic Simulation Models: Recent Progress and the Way Ahead , German Journal of Agricultural Economics 64(2): 107 - 119.

Britz, W.(2014): A New Graphical User Interface Generator for Economic Models and its Comparison to Existing Approaches , German Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63(4): 271-285, Link.

Podhora, A., Helming, K., Adenäuer, L., Heckelei, T., Kautto, P., Reidsma, P., Rennings, K., Turnpenny, J., Jansen, J. (2013): The policy-relevancy of impact assessment tools: Evaluating nine years of European research funding , Environmental Science & Policy 31: 85-95 , Link.

Britz, W., Van Ittersum, M., Oude Lansink, A., Heckelei, T. (2012): Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges , Bio-based and Applied Economics 1(2): 125-150 , Link.

Heckelei, T., Britz, W., Zhang, Y. (2012): Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling , Bio-based and Applied Economics 1(1): 109-124 , Link.

Jansson, T., Heckelei, T. (2011): Estimating a Primal Model of Regional Crop Supply in the European Union, Journal of Agricultural Economics 62(1): 137-152 , Link.

Britz, W., Verburg, P. H., Leip, A. (2011): Modelling of land cover and agricultural change in Europe: Combining the CLUE and CAPRI-Spat approaches , Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 142(1-2): 40-50 , Link.

Kempen, M., Elbersen, B. S., Staritsky, I., Andersen, E., Heckelei, T. (2011): Spatial allocation of farming systems and farming indicators in Europe , Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 142(1-2): 51-62 , Link.

Gocht, A., Britz, W. (2011): EU-wide farm type supply models in CAPRI - How to consistently disaggregate sector models into farm type models , Journal of Policy Modeling 33(1): 146-167 , Link.

Janssen, S., Louhichi, K., Kanellopoulos, A., Zander, P., Flichmann, G., Hengsdijk, H., Meuter, E., Andersen, E., Belhouchette, H., Blanco, M., Borkowski, N., Heckelei, T., Hecker, M., Li, H., Oude Lansink, A., Stokstad, G., Thorne, P., van Keulen, H., Van Ittersum, M. (2010): A Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model for Environmental and Economic Assessment of Agricultural Systems , Environmental Management 46(6): 862-877 , Link.

Kanellopoulos, A., Berentsen, P., Heckelei, T., Van Ittersum, M., Oude Lansink, A. (2010): Assessing the Forecasting Performance of a Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model Calibrated With Two Different PMP Variants , Journal of Agricultural Economics 61(2): 274-294 , Link.

Louhichi, K., Kanellopoulos, A., Janssen, S., Flichmann, G., Blanco, M., Hengsdijk, H., Heckelei, T., Berentsen, P., Oude Lansink, A., Van Ittersum, M. (2010): FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies , Agricultural Systems 103(8): 585-597 , Link.

Wolff, H., Heckelei, T., Mittelhammer, R. (2010): Imposing Curvature and Monotonicity on Flexible Functional Forms: An Efficient Regional Approach, Computational Economics 36(4) : 309-339 , Link.

Pèrez Dominguez, I., Bezlepkina, I., Heckelei, T., Romstad, E., Oude Lansink, A., Kanellopoulos, A. (2009): Capturing market impacts of farm level policies: a statistical extrapolation approach using biophysical characteristics and farm resources , Environmental Science & Policy 12(5): 588-600 , Link.

Van Ittersum, M., Ewert, F., Bezlepkina, I., Therond, O., Andersen, E., Belhouchette, H., Bockstaller, C., Brouwer, F., Heckelei, T., Janssen, S., Knapen, R., Kuiper, M., Louhichi, K., Alkan Olsson, J., Turpin, N., Wery, J., Wien, J. E., Wolf, J. (2009): A methodology for enhanced flexibility of integrated assessment in agriculture , Environmental Science & Policy 12(5): 546-561 , Link.

Jansson, T., Heckelei, T. (2009): A new estimator for trade costs and its small sample properties, Economic Modelling 26: 489-498 , Link.

Therond, O., Belhouchette, H., Janssen, S., Louhichi, K., Ewert, F., Bergez, J.-E., Wery, J., Heckelei, T., Alkan Olsson, J., Leenhardt, D., Van Ittersum, M. (2009): Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework , Environmental Science & Policy 12(5): 619-630 , Link.

Britz, W., Leip, A. (2009): Development of marginal emission factors for N losses from agricultural soils with the DNDC–CAPRI meta-model , Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment: 267-279 , Link.

Van Ittersum, M., Ewert, F., Bezlepkina, I., Therond, O., Andersen, E., Belhouchette, H., Bockstaller, C., Brouwer, F., Heckelei, T., Janssen, S., Knapen, R., Kuiper, M., Louhichi, K., Alkan Olsson, J., Turpin, N., Wery, J., Wien, J. E., Wolf, J. (2009): A methodology for enhanced flexibility of integrated assessment in agriculture , Environmental Science & Policy 12(5): 546-561 , Link.

Britz, w. (2008): Automated model linkages: the example of CAPRI , Agrarwirtschaft 57(8): 363-367 , Link.

Van Ittersum, M., Ewert, F., Heckelei, T., Wery, J., Alkan Olsson, J., Andersen, E., Bezlepkina, I., Brouwer, F., Donatelli, M., Flichmann, G., Olsson, L., Rizzoli, A. E., Van der Wal, T., Wien, J. E., Wolf, J. (2008): Integrated assessment of agricultural systems – A component-based framework for the European Union (SEAMLESS) , Agricultural Systems 96(1-3): 150-165 , Link.

Leip, A., Marchi, G., Köble, R., Kempen, M., Britz, W., Li, C. C. (2008): Linking an economic model for European agriculture with a mechanistic model to estimate nitrogen losses from cropland soil in Europe , Biogeosciences 5(1): 73-94 , Link.

Britz, W., Heckelei, T., Wolff, H. (2003): Symmetric Positive Equilibrium Problem: A Framework for Rationalizing Economic Behavior with Limited Information: Comment , Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 85(4): 1078-1081 , Link.

Heckelei, T., Wolff, H. (2003): Estimation of Constrained Optimisation Models for Agricultural Supply Analysis Based on Generalised Maximum Entropy , European Review of Agricultural Economics 30(1): 27-50 , Link.

Heckelei, T., Mittelhammer, R. (2003): Bayesian Bootstrap Multivariate Regression, Journal of Econometrics 112(2): 241-264 , Link.

Britz, W., Heckelei, T. (2000): Positive Mathematical Programming with Multiple Data Points: A Cross-Sectional Estimation Procedure , Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales 57(1): S. 28-50 , Link.


Last updated: Friday, January 06, 2017